Courts’ Judgment Analysis Name: Course: Institutional Affiliation: Courts’ Judgment Analysis Introduction Courts are a very important part of the society and play a vital role in the dissemination of justice. Therefore the decisions that are made by the courts' system have a direct effect on society. Arcidiacono and Miller (2011) argue that the accuracy of the decisions that are made by the court judges are essential in ensuring justice to the persons who are part of the case. Once decisions are made at the lower courts one of the parties in the case can decide to appeal the decisions of the judges. The decision can either be overturned or upheld by the appellant courts. The analysis of the court's decisions can be done using the probabilities and conditional probabilities of the cases being appealed and the decisions either reversed or upheld. This article seeks to analyze decisions by different being reversed relative to the total number of cases that are brought before. The decisions by the judges in the common pleas court suffer the highest probability of being reversed. The probabilities and conditional probabilities are used in the measurement of the performance by the judges in the three types of courts. Marcot (2012) supports the use of probabilities in performance evaluation arguing it enables one to predict the future using the available data. References Arcidiacono P. & Miller R. A. (2011). Conditional choice probability estimation of dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneity. Econometrica 79(6) 1823-1867. Kim Y. Park J. Jung W. Jang I. & Seong P. H. (2015). A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 142 378-387. Marcot B. G. (2012). Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models. Ecological modeling 230 50-62. [...]
Jackson County Judges Jackson County judges try thousands of cases per year. In an overwhelming majority of the cases disposed, the verdict stands as rendered. However, some cases are appealed, and of those appealed, some of the cases are reversed. Jackie Chan of The Star Tribune conducted a study of cases handled by Jackson County judges over a three-year period. In the Excel file, Judges, linked at the bottom of the page, are the results for the 182,908 cases handled (disposed) by 40 judges in Common Pleas Court, Domestic Relations Court, and Municipal Court. The purpose of the newspaper's study was to evaluate the performance of the judges. The newspaper wanted to know which judges were doing a good job and which ones were making too many mistakes. You are to assist in the data analysis by using your knowledge of probability and conditional probability to help with the ranking of each of the judges, as well as each court. Managerial Report Prepare a report (see below) with your ranking of the judges based on the probabilities and conditional probabilities, as well as the analysis of each court. Include the following seven (7) items in table format to support your ranking. Be sure to use five (5) decimal places for your probabilities in the table, as some of them will be quite small. The probability of cases being appealed in each of the three different courts. The probability of cases being reversed in each of the three different courts. The probability of cases being reversed given an appeal in each of the three different courts. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge. The probability of reversal, given an appeal for each judge. Rank the judges within each court for each of the probabilities in 4 - 6. In other words, only rank the judges in the Common Pleas court against the other judges in the Common Pleas court. perfrom the same analysis for the other two courts. Then, within each court, find the sum of the ranks and get an overall ranking for each judge. Evaluate and discuss the meaning of your results. Use tables, charts, graphs, or visual dashboards to support your findings. Write a report that adheres to the Written APA Requirements. have in-text citations and a reference page. An example paper is provided Your report must contain the following: A title page in APA style and 3 scholar references (***will be verified for accuracy) An introduction that summarizes the problem. The body of the paper should answer the questions posed in the problem by communicating the results of your analysis. Include results of calculations, as well as charts and graphs, where appropriate. A conclusion paragraph that addresses your findings and what you have determined from the data and your analysis. Submit Excel file in addition to report.