Posted at 11.29.2018
The One-Child Policy helped China to raise its economic development before decades. China was able to control the speed of the population growth lower than the pace of the GDP development, and thus the GDP per capita boosts dramatically in the past generations. In regression model 1, over 53% of the economic growth can be described by the coverage; in regression model 2, over 74% of the monetary progress can be discussed by the plan. Hence this newspaper has shown the change in the financial progress of China could be described by the consequences of the One-Child Insurance plan. But the crude birth rate is not shown to have long term or short-term effect on the GDP per capita, the gross preset capital development has a substantial positive effect on the GDP per capita. The gross set capital formation cannot have increased very much without the presence of the One-Child Insurance plan. While the population growth decreases, more resources are being used to improve the living standard.
The permanent aftereffect of the One-Child insurance policy was also considered in the study. The results obtained in regression model 2 have mentioned the graduate monetary progress in China can be well explained by the effect of the One-Child Plan.
The coefficients of the crude birth rate were negative in both regression models; it suggested that area of the Malthusian theory and the neo-Malthusian theory were support. The main criticism of the ideas was the ideas did not bank account the progress in the technology, and therefore the food resource has increased faster than arithmetic progress. The knowledge and technology in China has progressed tremendously in the past thirty years since the One-Child Plan has implemented. Therefore, the Malthusian theory and the neo-Malthusian might not be appropriate in the modern world today. This view has been support in the task of Galor and Weil (1999, pp. 150-154). Furthermore, area of the Revisionism theory was recognized. The theory advised that the population growth does not hinder the populace growth in thick area and China is a densely filled country.
In regression model 2, lagged crude birth rate was used. Because the population will enter in the labor force at the aged of 16, the crude beginning rate was tested for the impact on the GDP per capita. The variable was found insignificant to make clear the changes in the GDP per capita. The results recommended that China was not facing the diminishing return of labour.
Since the crude delivery rate is not correlated with the expansion of GDP per capita, there is no population theory which is completely backed in the research of China. Although China had not been facing a Malthusian dynamic of overpopulation and diminishing return of labour dynamics, it is vital for the execution of the One-Child Plan. If the populace was not manipulated and continued to increase, China would soon have to face the issues associated with overpopulation and diminishing go back to labour.
In conclusion, your choice of the implementation of the One-Child Plan in 1979 was recognized in this research. But the One-Child Policy has shown to get benefitted the economical growth of China in the short term and 16 years long lasting, it could have a detrimental effect in the long term. The "one child" now has to support his/her two parents and four grandparents. Therefore, the implementation of the One-Child Plan was backed in 1979 however the decision of the continuation of the One-Child Insurance plan is usually to be continued to be uncertain.
The results obtained in the study only provide a advice of the execution of the One-Child Plan. There are certain limitations in the research. Several measurement issues have to be addressed are stated below.
As a proxy of the training level, it is better to use the average number of schooling as it gives a clearer picture of the training level of the population. Unfortunately, the Country wide Bureau of Figures of China has not recorded this variable for the period, 1979 - 2007.
As a proxy of the living standard, it is better to work with the gross preset capital creation per capita as it accounts the fact that the living standard rises faster than the population growth. Unfortunately, the scale labour drive was also not recorded. (Gross fixed capital formation per capita = Gross set capital creation/ Workforce)
There are several missing figures in the info. The missing statistics usually occur in 1980 to 1985. Although interpolation has used to analyze the lacking data in between, the lack of data can lead to inaccuracies in the results.
There may be inaccuracies in the information of the crude birth rate. Many against the law birth of baby girls occurred due to the traditional son preference in China. The specific crude delivery rate should be higher as the illegitimate births weren't recorded.
The lack of the sample sizes may also lead to inaccuracies in the results which determine the permanent aftereffect of the One-Child Policy. There are only 13 observations after the adjustments, which might lead to no significant varying being diagnosed even if there is a one present. Furthermore, only the labour market was accounted to determine the long term effect of the One-Child Insurance policy in this review. The "4-2-1" problem can not accounted in the study, as the plan has only integrated for 31 years and it is shortly enough for the research of this result.
Although the execution of the One-Child Insurance plan was generally supported in the results, it might not exactly be supported in various areas of China. The common crude beginning rate was found in the research, and thus the decision of the One-Child Insurance policy might not be reinforced in individual locations. E. g. Urban areas
The official amounts from the Country wide Bureau of Information of China may have exaggerated the expansion of GDP [The Economist: China's dismal information (Anon. , 2009)], which will lead to the overestimation of the effect of the One-Child Plan.
The research provides basic analysis on the execution of the One Child Insurance policy in China. It could be further studied to accomplish a deeper level of knowledge of the policy. As mentioned in the previous section, the evaluation of the execution of the One-Child Insurance plan varies from cities. The number of births has been essentially reduced, and the populace started to era. Urban areas may have began to face the scarcity of labour and problems related to demographic maturity. This recommendation has been recognized as the individuals in Shanghai were motivated to have two children per family since 2009 (Xie Linli, 2009). Furthermore, the action taken in Shanghai has backed my summary in the study which China had not been facing the diminishing return of labour. The relationship between the GDP per capita and the crude birth rate in several towns can be modified by cities. The population ideas will possibly be reinforced by the analyses in several cities. Same methods and tests can be used and the data required may also be found in the official website of the National Bureau of Reports of China. Since the One-Child Insurance plan was criticised to have violated the real human rights, the results obtained out of this further research will help the find suggestions to other family planning in China. When the crude delivery rate was found positively correlated with the economical growth in different cities, some insurance plan suggestions can be produced. For instance, more births can be allowed or only the spacing between births is managed. Alteration of the plan will possibly bring advantages to China. The criticisms of the family planning may reduce; the amount of female infanticides may also be reduced, and may lead to the further increase in the economic progress in China.
The One-Child Coverage is definitely a source of controversy since its execution; there are a lot more potential mastering areas. Inside the analysis section, the progress in the amount of tertiary enrolment in China was found insignificant to make clear the economic progress. Another independent varying like the percentage of individuals that have done secondary colleges can be used as a proxy of the education level. More research can be carried out on the associations between the One-Child Insurance plan, education and crude delivery rate. The partnership between the parameters can be found using enough time series OLS regression. Although the education level of the folks was increased by the One-Child Coverage, there are other factors that have an impact on the training level. As the education level of the people increased, the desire of bettering the characteristics of life may increase and the desire having children may reduce. As a result, the crude birth rate might not exactly only be damaged by the One-Child Insurance policy, but also the increased level of education. The results obtained can help notice if the effect of the One-Child Insurance policy was overestimated in today's study, and at the same time help to gain a better knowledge of the economic expansion in China.
Further study could include analysing the sex ratios in China. It is definitely an active debating subject. The One-Child Plan has affected to the making love ratio because of the traditional son desire in China. The intimacy selective abortion has resulted in the excess births of men and the unbalance sex percentage in China. A research has been done on the unbalanced making love ratios, and the researcher, Hesketh states that, "males under age 20 exceeded females by more than 32 million in China, and more than 1. 1 million excessive births of kids happened. " Since there are 32 million more guys than females, some of the men will be unable to get married and also have a family group. Fewer births will be took place as there are less married couples, and then the unbalanced sex ratios may also decrease the crude beginning rate of the populace. Moreover, the children may need to take care even more older alternatively than only their own 2 parents and 4 parents, but their relatives as well. The GDP per capita may be adversely influenced by the gender ratios. Identical to the recommended research in the last paragraph, the results obtained can help to notice if the result of the One-Child Coverage was overestimated in today's study.
The last suggestion of the potentials area of study is dependant on the past of the One-Child Coverage results on the financial growth, and estimate the future influence on the current economic climate. The changes in the factors which are affected by the One-Child Coverage can be forecasted. The least squares regression may be used to calculate the lines of best fit. Predicated on the predicted changes of the variables, the growth of GDP in the foreseeable future can then be estimated. Further analysis on the implementation of the One-Child Insurance plan can be done combined with the results obtained.
The People's Republic of China appears to have faith in the influences on the One-Child Plan. As to how profound the affect of the One-Child Coverage, only time can notify.